Pandemics and Networks: the Case of the Mexican Flu

The recent widespread of the new Mexican flu and SARS show the high dependency on contemporary traveling patterns. The air transport network is recognized as an important channel of epidemic propagation for different diseases. In order to predict epidemic spreading and the influence of protection measures, a mathematical model of the Susceptible Infected Susceptible (SIS) type is used. We compare three different networks, namely the air transport network (in the USA and Europe), ErdösRényi (ER) graphs and complete bi-partite networks in the light of graph theoretical results based on the N-intertwined model. Using the spreading parameters of the Mexican flu estimated in Mexico City, we determine the necessary speed of countermeasures such that the epidemic is stopped. Restructuring of the air transport in the case of the USA transport network does not improve protection, while in the case of the European transport network the number of infected nodes is reduced for 10%.